靜靜的部落客

(ww07'12)

歐元區第四季GDP季衰退0.3%，為2009年第二季以來首次衰退，但第四季年成長仍維持正向於0.7%。2011年全年則成長1.5%。無論是第四季季成長、年成長、全年成長皆優於預期。

 第四季數據顯示歐洲經濟隨著國債問題惡化而走下坡，其中義大利、荷蘭、葡萄牙業已步入衰退（連續兩季季衰退）。令人意外的，法國季成長0.2%，德國衰退幅度也較預期為低。而近期經濟數據顯示在希臘問題逐漸穩定後，歐洲逐漸站穩腳步。換言之，歐洲經濟是全球經濟今年表現之關鍵，而歐債問題則是歐洲經濟今年表現之關鍵。

 在半導體方面，日月光、矽品、與艾克爾皆已公布第四季財報；以目前四季財報而論，日月光封測方面全年成長1.5%，矽品衰退4.1%，艾克爾則衰退5.5%。其中艾克爾財報亦公布去年第三、第四季即展開裁員計畫。由於日月光成長而矽品與艾克爾衰退，日月光勢必能繼2010年後再次拓展市佔率。

值得注意的是，台積電宣告將於2013年初推出後段3D IC封裝服務，高通與意法已對利用TSV進行AP與記憶體做MCP封裝的技術表達高度關注，可能加速3D IC未來推展。

 The economy of Eurozone contracted 0.3% in 4Q’11 versus 3Q’11, the first since the 2Q’09, but the annual growth for 4Q’11 rate remained positive at 0.7%. Overall, Eurozone grew 1.5% in 2011. Those numbers were slightly better than consensus.

 The figure showed Europe's economy was hit hard when the debt crisis intensified, as Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal had fallen into recession. However, France did show an unexpected 0.2% QoQ growth.
 Recent indicators suggest that the Eurozone economy has recovered its poise. How the global economy fares this year is likely to depend on how Europe deals with the debt crisis. Many institutes, including the IMF, think it's the biggest risk to the global economic outlook.

 On semiconductor side, ASE appeared to gain some market share with an unaudited 1.5% YoY growth in 2011 while SPIL and Amkor declined by 4.1% and 5.5% respectively. However, with TSMC planning to announce 3D IC assembly service as a general offering at the beginning of 2012, the technology CoWoS (chip on wafer on substrate) has the potential to shake up the OSAT industry.

A number of mobile AP companies, including Qualcomm and STE, are known to be investigating 3D IC to use TSV (through silicon via) for MCP (multi-chip package).