靜靜的部落客

(ww06'12)

美國二月份消費者信心指數較預期差，但就業前景樂觀指數卻有所提升，故可望繼續保持一般民眾消費意願並間接避免房市再下滑。此為半年來信心首度下滑，顯示經過聖誕銷售季後，民眾對於個人收入未來能否增加存有疑慮，但對就業市場並未喪失信心。

至於半導體方面，SIA十二月份統計數據顯示該月份月比衰退4.5%，而年比衰退4.5%，但若把疲軟的DRAM排除，年比則僅衰退1%。2011全年數據則未能突破原先SIA秋季所預測的3000億美元，僅較2010年成長0.4%至2993億美元。其中表現最差者亦為DRAM。

好消息是，身為晶圓代工龍頭的台積電在一月傳出捷報；台積電上個月認為第一季將與去年第四季維持持平，但一月份業績出乎意料之外的成長11.3%，而台積電最大競爭對手聯電雖然業績尚未有起色，卻也在發說會上表達對庫存去化已告一段落之看法；高盛認為這波為期兩季的庫存去化將於第一季結束，並在結束後三至六個月內逐月攀升，並在十月份來到高點；其中將有蘋果推出新款iPhone、iPad，其餘廠商也將推出新款ICS智慧型手機，第三季起甚至會有Ultrabook、Windows 8等激勵買氣。此外，高盛也指出根據其調查，晶圓代工業者的十四個主要客戶將在第一季衰退3.6%，符合過往歷史平均之衰退3.5%。換言之，今年半導體市場可望回歸過去的傳統趨勢。

Americans felt worse about their personal finances in early February, but rising confidence in the labor market's prospects should help to support spending and the broader economy. It was the first drop in six months and reflected households' anxiety over their finances. The ebb in morale comes despite the recent run of relatively strong data, including solid job growth and manufacturing activity.

As for semiconductor, 2011 concluded with growth was just 0.4% above the previous year and fell short of the SIA's expectations of more than $300 billion. Worldwide semiconductor sales in December amounted to $23.8 billion, a decrease of 5.5% from November and down 4.5% YoY, with units steadily lower coupled with a slight increase in ASP, says SIA. Excluding memory, however, semi revenues were down just 1% YoY.

On the bright side, TSMC posted 11.4% monthly rise in January sales as the industry is seeing an end to the inventory correction that has lasted two quarters, while UMC also showed signs that sales might be stabilizing. Goldman Sachs concurred in a report on Friday that it expects foundry shipments to improve monthly from March and last 3-6 months to the seasonal peak month of October, citing the historical foundry cyclical pattern. It said 14 major foundry customers have projected their total revenue will decline 3.6 percent in 1Q from the previous quarter, in-line with normal seasonality of a 3.5% decline.