靜靜的部落客

(ww14'12)

在本周二揭露美國聯準會三月十三會議紀錄後，新一輪量化寬鬆頓成泡影；對此噩耗，市場震驚不已，各主要證券指數皆以下跌作收。值得點出的是聯準會並未完全排除量化寬鬆之可能性，同時也預計在三年內維持近零利率政策。

此外，聯準會參與成員也認為今明兩年美國經濟成長將難有突破性演出，雖然短期內失業率下降將有助於維持經濟穩定，油價上漲也將製造暫時性通膨。

至於半導體方面，二月份半導體產值年衰退7.3%，月衰退1.3%。其中月衰退符合季節趨勢。細究其中漲跌，類比、微控制器、數位訊號處理器以及記憶體之表現超越歷史水準，但微處理器，如電腦之中央處理器，則遜於歷史；其中原因可能有二，其一為英特爾與超微自今年三月份起拒絕提供詳細資料導致資料失真，其二為英特爾最新款之IVS處理器延後推出，推延換機潮發生。總體而言，二月份半導體產出數量較前一個月上升6%，較歷史為佳，但平均價格下滑幅度卻達5%，劣於歷史，導致整體成長呈現持平。

放眼未來，依據趨勢分析與庫存水平，今年下半年及明年之半導體成長預料將較今年第一季為佳，唯表現情形仍須失業、通膨、經濟突發事件等條件到位。

Markets reacted strongly to the latest round of Fed minutes, released on Tuesday. Reflecting the discussions held by the FOMC at the March 13 meeting, the minutes continue to show a divided Fed, with QE (quantitative easing) still being debated as an option and one member calling for tighter policy before 2014.

FOMC participants noted “GDP growth would pick up only gradually in 2012 and 2013”. Stronger labor markets were also met with caution by the Fed, which warned higher oil prices would push up inflation, but the effect should be temporary.

On semiconductor side, February sales of ICs were in line with historical seasonality according to data from the SIA. Sales were up 1% MoM, compared to typical seasonality of up 2% MoM. Analog, MCU, DSP and memory sales were all above typical seasonality, while microprocessors were significantly below. The increase was mainly due to stronger semi unit shipments (up 6% MoM vs. seasonality of down 1%) but were somewhat offset by weaker ASPs (down 5% MoM vs. seasonality of up 2%).

Trendline analysis and inventory database suggest that the semi cycle is bottoming in 1Q12 and 2H12 and 2013 fundamentals look very positive.