靜靜的部落客

(ww16'12)

即使食物與能源價格節節攀升，美國通膨仍維持穩定；由於物價並未產生劇烈波動，美國聯準會再度出現宣示將維持低利率政策至2014年。

在半導體方面，未來一個月將會是今年度的景氣風向球：重量級廠商第一季財報將陸續登場。首先揭開序幕的是手機晶片龍頭高通與電腦晶片龍頭英特爾。

高通首季財報依舊亮眼，其中MSM晶片出貨量超越預測季比成長2.4%，而3G/4G市場季比成長24%也遠較預期為高。因此在這波智慧型手機熱潮推波助瀾下，整體營收成長6%，QCT部門衰退也僅1%。但展望第二季，高通晶片出貨量預測僅落於144M與152M之間，遠低於市場原先預期之157M；分析師推估主因為台積電28奈米製程產能不足，不但將導致iPhone 5及其他預計採用28奈米製程晶片支手機延後至第三季發布，手機製造商也將試圖轉向其他基頻供應商尋求貨源。因此市場也盛傳高通已展開向其他晶圓代工廠徵詢28奈米供貨之可能性。目前市場預測高通第二季晶片出貨量為150M，較財報公布前之160M減少10M，第三季出貨量則為164M，較原先預測少2M，第四季則未變動，依舊是204M。

英特爾首季財報也超乎市場預期。其中電腦事業群僅下滑7%，重重擊破原先因泰國洪水導致硬碟短缺之悲觀氣氛。根據英特爾的預測，今年電腦成長將維持健康而穩定的5%~10%，而已經推出的伺服器處理器Romley、第二季將上市的新款電腦處理器Ivy Bridge以及預計年底的Windows 8將是這波成長背後重要的推手。

Outside the volatile food and energy category, USA’s inflation pressures appeared to be modest. Core CPI edged up 0.2% after gaining 0.1% in February. As a result, the Fed will hold interest rates super low into 2014.

On semiconductor, we have now entered the crucial CY1Q’12 financial reporting period. The first two heavyweights were Qualcomm and Intel.

Qualcomm’s full-year guidance for 3G/4G devices and ASPs moved higher due to stronger smartphone growth. However, Qualcomm’s chipset guidance for 144-152 million units missed Street expectations of 157 million units thanks to supply constraints on 28nm process at TSMC. The shortage will probably force iPhone 5 launch timeframe to shift from mid-summer to September/October. It may also cause some incremental market share loss for Qualcomm over the next two Qs at other customers who may delay their launches.

For Intel, its PC client group posted revenue of $8.5 billion, down 7% QoQ, well ahead of consensus estimates. So much for the HDD problem, it looks like Intel will have a solid year if they can execute to Ivy Bridge, Romley (for server) and Microsoft can ship Windows 8 in time for the holiday selling season. Intel expects PC market to enjoy mid to high single-digit grow this year.