(ww17'12)
美國消費者信心指數由上月的69.5降至本月的69.2。研究機構認為即使指數有極微的下滑，仍不影響消費者樂觀看到長程經濟發展；但也顯示最近每當消費者進入下一個月時就會對近程未來較保守看待。
或受助於消費者保持樂觀，蘋果再次繳出令人驚豔的財報。iPhone在今年第一季不受上一季驚人銷售量的影響，年比成長88%、季比僅僅衰退5.3%，來到35.1M出貨量。該數字遠比分析家原先估計之30M要高。iPad也在新款推出後展現熱賣實力；出貨量雖然季比衰退24%，年比成長卻來到咋舌的151%。但在亮麗數字背後仍有隱憂：上一季iPhone庫存量劇增2.6M來到8.6M，遠較歷史水位5M高出許多，同時蘋果也預測本季營收與獲利將有13%的下滑。
雖然市場並不認為蘋果將採用高通28nm的S4晶片，所以將不受台積電製程產能不足影響，但蘋果財測下滑卻對高通整體出貨有不容小覷的傷害。假如蘋果本季iPhone銷售量為30M，同時將庫存降回上一季水準，再加上iPad僅有三成配有3G/4G通訊功能，本季蘋果對高通晶片之需求量將自上一季之下滑8M來到31M；意即8.2%下調。這項推測與高通自身上周財測吻合：高通預計3G/4G晶片在第二季出貨量將下調9M。換言之，蘋果迷引頸盼望的新iPhone恐怕將不在夏天，而是在九月推出。
The US consumer-confidence index fell to 69.2 from a revised March reading of 69.5. The slight dip was prompted by a moderation in consumers’ short-term outlook. Overall, consumers are more upbeat about the state of the economy, but they remain cautiously optimistic.
As CCI remained upbeat, Apple delivered another stellar result in CY1Q’12. iPhone volumes were strong by growing 88% YoY and only -5.3% QoQ, well above expectations. There was also an inventory build of 8.6M iPhones, up 2.6M from 4Q’11. The consensus of iPhone shipment for this year has gone slightly up to 151M. iPad demand also remained robust after holiday sales, declining 24% QoQ but grew 151% YoY. However, Apple said it expects both sales and profit to decline in the current quarter. The company said it sales will likely decline 13%.
With sales decline and inventory build, there’s a concern for Qualcomm. Although Apple isn’t expected to use Qualcomm’s 28nm chip thus avoiding TSMC’s manufacturing bottleneck, Apple’s forecast will put a bump on Qualcomm’s CY2Q’12 prospect. If iPhone sales drop to 30M in this quarter and the inventory drop back to normal historical norm, along with the assumption of 30% iPads are equipped with BB, the total demand for Qualcomm’s BB from Apple will be 31M, which is down 8.2%, or 8M units from last quarter. This corresponds to Qualcomm guidance of 9M drop of 3G/4G chipsets for current quarter. All in all, we should now expect next iPhone to launch in September instead of summer.
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