靜靜的部落客

(ww50'11)

Dear All,

歐盟央行重申其身為企業而非各國政府最後救星的腳色。因此在其固定月會後，僅發布利率調降政策，而未對歐債問題多著墨。連續兩個月調降利率也顯示歐洲資金流動迅速陷入遲滯。

歐盟央行同時也發布新版本的預測：明年歐元區將僅成長1%到衰退0.4%。其中間值為0.3%，遠較九月份的預測為低。急凍的歐洲也導致十月份的半導體營收欠佳。

根據SIA公布的十月份半導體營收，十月份為連續第三個月較歷史平均表現差的月份。值得注意的是，雖然十月份表現依舊不如歷史平均值，但與歷史平均值的差異也連續三個月縮小，惟分析家仍不敢斷言目前已然落底。

由於半導體平均售價優於歷史平均，顯示科技進度並未落後，而是大眾與企業消費趨緩導致銷售量下跌。由於終端需求依舊不振，即便各層都努力消化庫存，效果依舊有限；如果接下來的十二月能保持歷史平均表現，第四季將呈4%的衰退，而全年度將僅成長1.0%。明年度不含DRAM的預測也只有5%。

總而言之，歐洲與中國的經濟狀況、美國能否繼續維持成長、終端銷售是否真能有效消化庫存，將會是明年度成長能否優於預期之關鍵。


The European Central Bank (ECB) will be an enthusiastic lender-of-last-resort to banks but not to governments. That was the main message from ECB after its monthly policy meeting on December 8th.  The ECB voted to lower its benchmark interest rate from 1.25% to 1%, the second quarter-point cut in as many months.

ECB acknowledged that the outlook had darkened. The forecast by the its economics staff is that GDP growth in the euro area will be in a range of -0.4% to 1% (a mid-point of 0.3%) next year, a far gloomier view than at the time of the previous forecast in September. And the gloomy state of Europe showed in SIA’s October semiconductor revenue.

October SIA monthly revenue showed that it was below seasonal pattern again. While October marked the 3rd consecutive month of below seasonal revenue growth, it should be noted that relative to seasonality, MoM growth has improved since August. If we break down the data, we would find that ASP performance was actually better than seasonality, implying that decline in general spending was the cause.

If November and December growth follow normal seasonality, 4Q’11 will be -5% QoQ and putting 2011 at 1.0% YoY.

Excluding memory, the industry will likely see a 5% growth in 2012. The inventory burn in 4Q’11 is a positive sign, but the demand remains weak. The overall effect is likely to be less than hoped. We should remain cautious about the expected inventory restock in 2012 until the facts point to more optimism.