靜靜的部落客

(ww49'11)

Dear All,

三年來，中國製造業官方數據首度顯示萎縮；由於亞洲各主要經濟體近幾個月皆呈萎縮，能否在這次歐美經濟遲滯恢復中持續扮演火車頭的腳色啟人疑竇。

而新一版的歐洲製造業數據則指向較預期更快的探底；無論是生產力與新訂單都是前年金融危機以來最糟的表現。

令人意外的是，在全球一片慘綠中，唯有美國表現依舊強韌；十一月的消費者信心指數由三十九勁升至五十六，遠遠超過分析師預期的四十四。該項數據提升源自於連續數月的失業改善、國內負面新聞減少、以及感恩零售穩定成長。但當全世界都淪陷時，許多人不禁問：美國的強韌是一時的還是持久的？

雖然上述的問題沒有人有確切的答案，但可以預期許多國家將在新的一年展開新一輪的量化寬鬆與振興方案。但無論這些措施能否見效，都要在數月後方能驗證；任何手段都需要時間發酵。

由於全球經濟難見起色，十一月起的明年度半導體預測紛紛下修。iSuppli對明年的展望由六月的4.8%調降至九月的3.4%，隨著歐債與泰國洪災登場，更在十一月調降至3.2%。WSTS一口氣從六月的7.6%陡降至十一月的2.6%。至於Gartner與IC Insight最新數據都尚未出爐，但分別在九月份有所調降；其中Gartner由五月份的8.6%降至4.6%，IC Insights從年初的11.0%狂瀉至九月份的5.0%。

值得注意的是，截至目前為止各家研究機構仍預期明年半導體市場將有所成長，但由於經濟層面太過於渾沌不明，而變數發展性過大，只要一個滑跤，明年極有可能再現雙底衰退。


Manufacturing in China shrank in November for the 1st time in nearly three years, while output elsewhere in Asia also softened, raising questions about the region's ability to drive global economy amid sluggish demand from the West.

The euro zone's manufacturing sector contracted at a faster rate in November, with production and new orders falling at the strongest rate since the height of the credit crunch in 2009.

The long bright spot was USA consumer confidence rose sharply in November, reflecting recent gains in the labor market and modest momentum in the recovery. With only the U.S. economy showing remarkable resilience by many measures, you have to wonder: Should Americans really be feeling better about things?

Nevertheless, we expect many governments to try avoiding a hard landing by taking the necessary monetary and fiscal policy steps, such as quantitative easing. But the slowdown is likely to accelerate in the coming months as it takes time for policy loosening to show its positive impact on the economy.

In the meantime, weak economic conditions are forecast to persist into 2012 as worldwide GDP growth is projected to remain flat. The weak economy will continue to depress consumer spending, the foremost driver of electronics and semiconductor market demand. As a result, IHS iSuppli lowered 2012 outlook from 4.8% in June to 3.4% in September, then further down to 3.2% in November. Similarly, WSTS lowered its forecast to 2.6% after raising it to 7.6% in June from 4.2% in December, 2010. Other notable are Gartner’s lowering from 8.6% in May to 4.6% in September and IC Insight’s lowering from 11.0% in January to 5.0% in September.

However, any forecast for growth is cautious in nature as a number of factors threaten to drive the economy back into recession, which would push the semiconductor market into a double dip.