靜靜的部落客

(ww51'11)

Dear All,

美國上週失業救濟金領取人數為三年半以來最低，顯示工業生產資料雖然憂喜參半、十一月零售數據成長並不驚豔，美國經濟依舊持續復甦。相較於歐洲多國可能已陷入衰退，美國的穩進更顯難能可貴。但經濟學家指出：歐洲，特別是在周四歐債援助會談陷入僵局後，脆弱的經濟有可能會進一步拖累美國復甦；此外，亞洲數據也不甚樂觀。

本周，電視晶片市場再傳噩耗：CSR宣布放棄繼續發展Zoran的TV晶片。

由於2010年經濟反彈帶來遠較2004至2009年的2.8%平均成長高的17.8%的電視出貨成長，組裝、面板與晶片商紛紛加碼投入資源。如今，今年電視成長率預估為0~2%，未來五年平均成長率也恐怕難以突破3%，迫使許多廠商重新思考策略定位。雪上加霜的是，平板電腦侵蝕消費者家電預算，也同時減少觀眾欣賞電視的時間。內憂外患下，電視業持續面臨供應過剩與利潤下滑的問題。

遇此困境，電視晶片廠商紛紛轉身逃開。

Broadcom在9/22傳出關閉電視晶片研發中心；Trident則是在9/26宣布裁員22%。本周，CSR宣布將終止研發甫購入的Zoran的電視晶片事業。隨著市場第六、第七、第八名退出，電視晶片市場將形成：高階自製、中低階晨星與聯發科。


The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits dropped to a 3-1/2-year low last week, suggesting a weak U.S. economy is gradually improving even though factory data proved more mixed. It offered further proof of increased momentum in the pace of economic activity, even though retail sales rose modestly in November. This is in sharp contrast to Europe, where the festering debt crisis has already pushed some economies into recession.

But economists cautioned that troubles in Europe remain a major risk to U.S. growth, with fresh signs emerging on Thursday that the crisis in dampening production in Asia.

It is apparent that TV-related industries are paying for their mistakes they made in 2010 when the global TV market grew 17.8%, a sharp departure from the 2.8% CAGR during 2004 to 2009. The rapid rise of tablets in 2011 also weakens TV demand as consumers spend less time and budget on TV. The expectations of flat growth in 2011 and sub 3% long-term growth outlook of TV implies continued oversupply and poor profitability.

Faced with weak and uncertain future, TV IC suppliers are fleeing the market. Broadcom reacted first: ceasing DTV operation on 9/22. Trident followed suit: slashed 22% force on 9/26. Eventually, CSR bowed out: terminating Zoran’s DTV development on 12/12. With #6, #7, #8 DTV ASSP vendors either gutting out or scaling down, the stagnant market is left to MTK and MStar. is likely to be less than hoped. We should remain cautious about the expected inventory restock in 2012 until the facts point to more optimism.